It was about two weeks before the general election when I had two conversations on the doorstep which made me think the Conservatives were likely to lose in Surrey Heath, a seat which less than 20 years ago had the largest Conservative majority in the country.
We were out campaigning in Camberley on a sunny weekday evening, and the first of these conversations was with a couple who I would guess are in their 70s. They told me that they had always voted Conservative in General Elections but were disillusioned with the party’s performance in recent years. When I asked them to expand, they told me of their anger that the party had failed to deliver on its pledge to reduce net-migration and stop the boats. Despite my best efforts, they had firmly decided they would be voting for Reform.
The same evening, and just down the road, I spoke to a woman who I believe is in her early 40s. I had met her before and knew she had a child that attended the school in my council ward. Similar to the previous conversation, she told me she had voted Conservative previously but was disillusioned. Her frustration was that the Government had failed to tackle the cost of living, her mortgage rate had increased and inflation had put more pressure on her household budget. Although she had no particular enthusiasm about doing so, she had decided to vote Liberal Democrat on this occasion as they were the party she saw as offering an alternative to the Conservatives in Surrey Heath.
Conversations like these were repeated time and again throughout the campaign and, while different, they have the same issue at their heart – the Conservatives were seen as either unable or unwilling to deliver on their promises. The arguments can be summed up as “You said you would reduce immigration, you didn’t” or “You said you would ease my cost of living, you didn’t”. Now, I think there are very good reasons why the previous Government wasn’t able to do as much as it wanted on these issues (COVID and the war in Ukraine being the obvious ones) but arguing this will not change many voters’ view that the Party did not deliver on what it set out to do.
These attitudes show the challenges facing the Conservative Party as we seek to rebuild. Leadership candidates need to set out how they will reach out to both voters who decided to switch to Reform and those who voted Liberal Democrat here in Surrey Heath.
This may appear a daunting prospect but there are reasons for optimism. Firstly, in my experience there were very few former Conservative voters who were saying, “We will never vote for you again” in Surrey Heath, the attitude was more “Not this time”. There will always be support for centre-right values among voters and particularly in places like Surrey Heath where a large proportion of the population has subscribed to those values for generations. The Conservative Party must ensure that it is the Party that stands up for, and delivers on, those values.
Secondly, it is not the case that Conservative > Reform switchers do not care about the cost of living or economic issues, nor is it true that Conservative > Liberal Democrat switchers are not concerned about levels of immigration or other so called “social” issues. It is about what the priorities are for these voters. It is perfectly possible to present a platform that appeals to both of these type of voters in Surrey Heath.
Thirdly, I did not sense in Surrey Heath a great deal of enthusiasm either for a Labour government or having a Liberal Democrat MP. Many just felt it was time for a change. People are willing to listen to the Conservatives, but only if we put forward a considered, realistic plan for the country which covers the concerns of the wider population and doesn’t just focus on the interests of a particular segment of the electorate.
The new Conservative Party leader will need to both put forward an offer which appeals to all of those who have moved away from our party in the last few years, but also have in place a believable plan for how their ideas will be delivered in Government. In politics “how” is just as important as “what” and “why”.
Personally I have not decided who I will be supporting in the leadership election, but I await with interest to see the platforms put forward by the various candidates. Some of the key questions I will be looking for answers to are (there are plenty more but I believe these are the key five):
- Which areas or sectors of the UK economy provide the best opportunities for growth and how can Government support their potential?
- How do we reduce net migration to a more manageable level over the next decade?
- How and where should we seek to increase our housing supply, and how do we balance the need to build housing with our environmental commitments?
- In an age of longer life expectancies putting more strain on public services, does our welfare system need to be reformed, and if so, how?
- How should we look to reduce the tax burden on working people in the medium to long term?
These are some of the key issues which I found myself discussing with residents on the campaign trail. Of course, representing a party that has been in Government for 14 years you are always open to the question of “why haven’t you done that already?”. I hope that the Conservative Party uses the next few years wisely to reinvent itself as a party that can present viable solutions to the issues facing our country and ensure that centre-right values remain at the heart of British political discussion.
Based on my experience there is certainly appetite in our corner of the country (and I suspect across the UK) for a party that champions these values, but the challenge facing the next leader of the Conservatives is earning the trust to be that champion.
